New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, RBNZ, Crude Oil, RBA’s Ellis – Talking Points
- New Zealand Dollar holds firm while risk-sensitive Australian Dollar falls overnight
- RBNZ’s inflation expectations survey in focus as the central bank’s rate decision nears
- NZD/USD looks to retake the 0.7000 psychological level after bouncing from support
Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Forecast
The New Zealand Dollar rose slightly versus the US Dollar overnight as stocks on Wall Street moved lower. Traders in New York aggressively sold small-cap stocks, pushing the Russell 200 index lower by over a full percentage point. A set of downbeat corporate retail earnings and inflationary pressures weighed on sentiment overnight.
The Australian Dollar underperformed relative to the Kiwi Dollar, with AUD/NZD dropping over half a percent overnight. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s quarterly inflation expectations survey will cross the wires today at 02:00 GMT. Those results may bolster RBNZ rate hike bets, which have been rising through recent weeks, according to overnight swaps.
Elsewhere, Crude and Brent oil prices fell despite a bullish US inventory report. The Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report revealed a 2.1 million barrel decrease in stockpiles for the week ending November 12. That was well below the forecasted 1.07 million barrel build. Crude prices fell over 4% overnight to the lowest levels since October 07.
Today’s economic docket for the APAC region is rather light, outside of the NZD inflation expectations survey, which leaves prevailing risks trends to go potentially unchecked. The Philippines and Indonesia are set to deliver interest rate decisions, with analysts seeing no change from either central bank. The RBA’s Assistant Governor, Luci Ellis, will speak at an economic forum. Her comments may influence AUD/USD.
NZD/USD Technical Forecast
NZD/USD is attempting to retake the recently surrendered 0.7000 psychological level after bouncing off trendline support from the September swing low. A break higher will see the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) shift into focus. However, a break below trendline support may open the door for prices to fall further toward October lows.
NZD/USD Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView
— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter